Our Work

Our Work

Demographic Dividend

The Demographic Dividend (DD) Programme was conceived within the context of the discourse on the understanding of the demographic dividend as a paradigm for accelerated development and the appropriate policies and actions that should be adopted in order for countries in Africa to harness the demographic dividend. The demographic dividend refers to the accelerated economic growth that is initiated by a rapid decline in fertility and mortality that results in a change in the age structure from one dominated by child dependents to one dominated by economically productive working-age adults.  However, the dividend is not automatic or guaranteed and has to be earned by making strategic investments to improve education and skills development, health, economic reforms and job creation, and good governance and accountability. These were the ingredients for the success of the Asian Tigers who exemplify harnessing a substantial demographic dividend.

Project Manager

Bernard O. Onyango, Ph.D.
Bernard O. Onyango, Ph.D. Senior Knowledge Translation Scientist Read More

Countries

We conduct in-depth country studies on the DD including modeling, and develop; i) Comprehensive country analytical reports; ii) Policy briefs; and iii) Animations. We use the DemDiv Modelling Tool developed by the USAID supported Health Policy Project (HPP) at Futures Group.  DemDiv is structured as a two-part model that projects demographic and economic changes with equations to estimate employment and investment, along with an estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita. The model:

  • Promotes a deeper understanding of the DD, and requisite social investments and policy changes required to earn it
  • Is a single model framework that is customizable to project the DD in any individual country
  • Its target audience: Policymakers both inside and outside the health sector (e.g., MOH, MOF, Ministry of Planning, parliamentarians) in high-fertility countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa
  • Designed to be conceptually  simple, insightful and accessible to people without strong quantitative backgrounds (it is MS Excel based)

The model is scenario and projection based, comparing several different possibilities for future development against each other to show the varying benefits of different combinations of investments. It allows design of multiple scenarios showing how the combined power of policy investments in family planning (FP), health, education, and the economy can generate a DD. The table below shows scenarios that are common across all countries we have applied the model

tablemodeldd

Modelling results

This charts shows some of the results generated by the model in Uganda study. Uganda can earn a DD of $3,843 by 2040 if it simultaneously invests in family planning, Education, Empowerment of women and health, Job oriented Economic growth, and Governance

modelugdd

The table below shows the range of the demographic dividend that countries can harness if they implement the right policies in an integrated manner

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